What is risk in simple words? International student scientific newsletter

In cases where flows of mass and energy from a source of negative impact into the environment can increase rapidly and reach excessively high values ​​(for example, during accidents or other emergency situations), the permissible probability ( risk) occurrence of such an event.

Risk- the likelihood of a negative impact occurring in the area where a person is present.

Risk - this is a quantitative value of the possibility of certain events to cause harm to a person, a measure of danger that characterizes the probability or frequency of the occurrence of a danger and the consequences of its implementation over a certain period of time.

Risk as a quantitative characteristic of the probable effect of hazards is correlated with a certain number of workers (residents) for a specific period of time. It is understood that the possibilities of danger are formed by specific human activities, i.e. the number of deaths, the number of cases of illness, the number of cases of temporary and permanent disability (disability) are caused by the effect on a person of a specific danger ( electric current, harmful substance, moving object, criminal elements of society, etc.).

The concept of risk applies to both stochastic and deterministic (non-stochastic) effects.

Stochastic effects include those the probability of occurrence of which exists for any number of cases of influence of a dangerous or harmful factor, and increases with the number of cases, while the relative severity of the consequences does not depend on the number. The risk in this case is determined by the formula:

$$ r = ( \frac (n) (N)), $$

where r is risk (generalized assessment);

n is the number of cases due to the event;

N is the number of people affected by the event.

Deterministic effects include those that always occur when certain events occur or a certain level of a factor is exceeded, and the severity of their consequences depends on the magnitude of the factor.

The concept of risk is widely used in establishing maximum permissible values, the need to introduce and use collective and individual means of protection from the influence of harmful or dangerous factors, safety requirements for machines, mechanisms, equipment, restrictions related to the state of human health, and the state of the environment.

The risk could be:

• conscious and unconscious;
• voluntary and forced;
• significant and insignificant;
• justified and unjustified;
• controlled and uncontrolled.

IN production conditions, Where work area and the source of danger - elements of the production environment, distinguish between individual and collective (social) risks.

Individual risk - this is a combination of the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an unfavorable event for a specific individual, characterizes the realization of the danger certain type activities for the individual. The expression of individual production risk is the indicators of industrial injuries and occupational morbidity.

Collective risk is the probability of injury or death of two or more people from exposure to hazardous and harmful production factors. Used when assessing the possible impact of negative factors on a group of people, human society as a whole

The use of risk as a single index of harm when assessing the effect of various negative factors on a person is now beginning to be used for a reasonable comparison of the safety of various sectors of the economy and types of work, arguing for social advantages and benefits for a certain category of people.

The modern concept of life safety is based on achieving acceptable (tolerable) risk.

Acceptable risk - this is the minimum amount of risk that is achievable based on technical, economic and technological capabilities, i.e. such a low level of death, injury or disability of people that does not affect economic indicators enterprises, sectors of the economy or state.

The need to formulate the concept of acceptable (permissible) risk is due to the impossibility of creating an absolutely safe activity (technological process). Acceptable risk combines technical, economic, social and political aspects and represents a compromise between the level of safety and the ability to achieve it.

In order to determine the severity of a hazard, the degree of risk acceptable in a given situation, there are various criteria: categories of hazard severity; hazard probability levels; risk assessment matrix.

By degrees admissibility, the risk of developing dangerous situations is divided into:

• risk rejected , which has such a low level of probability of exposure to the hazard that it is within the permissible deviations of the natural (background) level;
• acceptable , i.e. the level of risk that society can accept (allow), taking into account the technical, economic and social capabilities at this stage of its development;
• maximum permissible risk - this is the maximum risk of probability of exposure to a hazard, which should not be exceeded despite the expected result;
• excessive risk , characterized exclusively high level possible realization of danger, which in the vast majority of cases leads to negative consequences.

In practice, achieve a zero level of risk, i.e. absolute safety is impossible. The rejected risk is also currently impossible to ensure, given the lack of technical and economic prerequisites for this.

Currently, there are ideas about values ​​of acceptable (tolerable) and unacceptable risks. An unacceptable risk has a probability of negative impact of more than 10 -3, acceptable - less than 10 -6. With risk values ​​from 10 -3 to 10 -6, it is customary to distinguish a transition region of risk values.

There are the following methodological approaches to risk determination:

1. Engineering , based on statistics, frequency calculation, probabilistic safety analysis, construction of hazard trees.
2. Model , based on the construction of models of the impact of harmful factors on an individual, social, professional groups, etc.
3. Expert , in which the probability of events is determined based on a survey of experienced specialists, i.e. experts.
4. Sociological , based on a population survey.

It is necessary to use these methods in combination, since they reflect different aspects of risk, and for the first two methods there is not always sufficient data.

Motivated risk justified by motives related to preventing an accident or saving people and material assets.

Unmotivated risk — risk exceeding acceptable and not justified by actions related to preventing an accident or saving people and material assets

Anthropogenic is a risk, which is a combination of the probability and consequences of the occurrence of an adverse event caused by human life and activities.

Environmental risk is the likelihood of the impact of negative factors on the natural environment.

Technogenic risk combines the probability of an adverse event (accident) and its consequences caused by the operation of technical facilities.

Industrial and professional risks are directly related to technogenic risk.

Production risk associated with specific production, production activities of the enterprise.

Professional is the individual risk associated with professional activity a specific person.

To determine the level of risk an assessment is made of the probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the formation and action of harmful factors, and the resulting social, economic, environmental and other types of damage.

The general formula for calculating risk can be presented as follows:

$$ R = (R_(1) × R_(2) × R_(3)), $$

where R is the risk level, i.e. the probability of causing certain damage to a person and environment;

%%R_1%% is the probability of an event or phenomenon causing the formation and action of harmful factors;

%%R_2%% is the probability of the formation of certain levels of physical fields, shock loads, concentration fields of harmful substances in various environments and their dose loads affecting people and other objects of the biosphere;

%%R_3%% is the probability that the specified field and load levels will lead to a certain damage.

A quantitative measure of risk can be expressed not only as a probability value. Sometimes risk is interpreted as damage arising from accidents, disasters and natural hazards. However, defining the level of risk as a probabilistic category is more acceptable in practical assessment of the level of safety.

Modern ideas about the levels of acceptable individual risk

In accordance with the concept of acceptable risk, there are:

• acceptable risk zone, where the permissible value of individual risk for the population from any form of activity should not exceed 10 -6 deaths per person per year. This zone is represented by unlikely events. This value is mainly associated with natural natural phenomena, which are impossible to get rid of, as a result of which they are forced to accept them as conditions for their existence on Earth (according to statistics, the individual risk of death during the operation of many technical systems exists at level 10 -7;
• transition zone from unacceptable risk (less than 10 -3) to the acceptable risk zone (more than 10 -6). This zone includes numerous, highly common activities and events.
• unacceptable risk zone , where with a probability of more than 10 -3 the most concentrated probable reasons, which kill the vast majority of people. The existence of hazard factors with a probability of more than 10 -3 significantly increases the likelihood of people dying from external causes.

Many types production activities have higher risks than acceptable. For example, miners, metallurgists, builders, etc. have a degree of individual risk of 10 -4 - 10 -3, and pilots jet aircraft– more than 10 -2.

Experts from various industries write about the terms “hazard” and “risk” in messages and reports.

The scientific literature writes about different interpretations of the term “risk”. The term "risk" has several meanings. The terms differ in content. Risk in insurance terminology is used to denote the subject of insurance industrial enterprise or company, insured event of flood, fire, explosion, insured amount of danger in in monetary terms or a collective term for unwanted and uncertain events. Economists and statisticians who deal with these questions understand risk as a measure of the possible consequences that will occur at some point in the future. In the psychological dictionary, risk is an action aimed at an attractive goal, an achievement that is associated with elements of danger, the threat of loss, a situational characteristic of activity consisting of uncertainty and adverse consequences, determined by a combination of the probability and magnitude of adverse consequences. Several definitions of the term describe risk as the occurrence of an accident. Accidents: danger, accident, catastrophe. Accidents occur under certain production conditions or the atmospheric environment surrounding a person. Definitions as the meaning of the active activity of the subject, the objective properties of the environment.. The common thing in all the above representations includes the event. There will be an undesirable event or there will be no undesirable event. Usually a probabilistic measure of man-made occurrences and natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of dangers of social, economic and technological harm. Risk is usually a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards, resulting in social, economic, environmental types of damage and harm. Risk is understood as the expected purity or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain category, the amount of damage, harm from an undesirable event, some combination of quantities.

Risk is actually a measure of danger. Use the concept of degree of risk.

The concept of level of risk is no different from the concept of risk.

The degree of risk is a measurable value.

The term risk is currently used in hazard analysis and safety (risk) management technological processes) and production.

Formation of dangerous and emergency situations– the result of a certain set of risk factors generated by relevant sources.

In relation to life safety, such an event can be the death of a person, an accident or catastrophe of a technical system or device, pollution or deterioration of the ecological system, the death of a group of people, an increase in the mortality rate of the population, an increase in safety costs.

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a specific victim - an object of risk.

There are individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks.

Types of risk.

Technical. Technical systems and objects. Violation of operating rules and technical systems and facilities. Accident, explosion, catastrophe, fire. Anthropogenic environmental disasters, technical disasters.

Ecological. Ecological systems. Anthropogenic interference in the natural environment, man-made emergency situations. Anthropogenic, environmental disasters, natural disasters.

Social. Social groups. Emergency situation. Decreased quality of life. Group injuries. Diseases. Death of people. Increase in mortality.

Economic. Material resources. Increased production hazard. Increased danger of the natural environment. Increased security costs. Damage from insufficient security.

Individual. Human. Human living conditions. Diseases. Injury. Disability. Death.

Individual risk is determined by the probability of realization potential hazards when dangerous situations arise. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

R - individual risk;

P is the number of victims who died per unit of time t from a certain risk factor f,

W is the number of people exposed to risk factor f per unit of time t.

Source of individual risk. The most common risk factor for death.

Internal environment human body. Aging.

Victimization. Victim of potential dangers.

Social ecology. Poor quality air. Water. Foodstuffs. Viral infections. Domestic injuries. Fires.

Professional activities. Dangerous and harmful production factors.

Transport connections. Accidents and disasters vehicles. Collisions with human transport. Accident. Catastrophe.

Unprofessional activity. Sport.

Social environment. Armed conflict. Murder.

Natural environment. Earthquake. Volcanic eruption. Floods, landslides, hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Individual risk. A person is at risk in unfavorable environmental conditions.

A comprehensive indicator of the reliability of technosphere elements. It expresses the probability of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction, operation of buildings

R T ‗ ΔT (t)_

Technical risk

T number of accidents per unit time t on identical technical systems and facilities

T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common factor.

Sources and factors of technical risk f.

Sources and factors of technical risk.

The number of accidents per unit of time t on systems and objects.

Individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by human activity.

Selection of design diagrams and operating principles of technical systems.

Errors in determining operational loads. Wrong choice of construction materials. Insufficient safety margin. Lack of technical safety features in projects. Poor quality finishing of structures. Technologies. Safety criteria documentation. Serial production of unsafe equipment. Deviation from the specified chemical materials. Insufficient accuracy of design dimensions. Violation of thermal and chemical regimes heat treatment, details. Violation of regulations for the assembly and installation of structures and machines. Breaking the rules safe operation technical systems.

Use of equipment for purposes other than its intended purpose. Violation of passport design regimes, operation. Untimely preventive inspections and repairs. Violations of transportation and storage requirements. Personnel errors. Weak action skills difficult situation. Inability to evaluate information about the state of the process. Poor knowledge of the essence of the ongoing process. Lack of self-control under stress. Indiscipline.

Environmental risk.

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment or a natural disaster.

Undesirable environmental risk events both directly in intervention zones and beyond:

Ro═ environmental risk

O number of man-made technological disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t

Number of potential sources of environmental destruction in the territory under consideration

The scale of environmental risk Rom is assessed as a percentage of the area of ​​crisis or catastrophic territories to the total area of ​​the biogeocenosis under consideration.

Rom = ΔS 100

An additional indirect criterion of environmental risk can be an integral indicator of the environmental friendliness of the enterprise territory, correlated with the dynamics of population density (number of employees):

OT = +ΔX + ΔM (t) S

O T ═ ΔX+-Δ M (t)S

On the level of environmental friendliness of the territory.

S is the area of ​​the study area.

Sources and factors of social risk.

Urbanization of ecologically unstable territories. Settlement of people in areas of possible formation of increased seismicity. Industrial technologies and hazardous objects. Accidents at nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, chemical plants, product pipelines. Technogenic environmental pollution. Social and military conflicts.

Fighting. Use of weapons of mass destruction. Epidemics.

Spread of viral infections. Unsatisfactory living conditions.

Economic risk is determined by the ratio of benefits and harm received by society from the type of activity in question.

References

1. “Life Safety: Safety through Training” 2008, Moscow.

As a result of studying the materials in this chapter, the student should:

• know concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty"; the history of risk theory and its development; what criteria can be used to classify risks; how to use the classification to develop methods for their analysis and organize a risk management system;
• be able to distinguish between the views of scientists of different schools on theoretical aspects categories "risk" and "uncertainty"; determine various types risks, identify and use systematic and unsystematic risks when assessing assets;
• own knowledge of modern theories of risk (portfolio, valuation of financial assets, valuation of options).

Definition of the concepts "risk" and "uncertainty"

It should be noted that the concept of “risk” has a fairly long history, but various aspects of risk have been actively studied in late XIX– early 20th century It is interesting that until the 17th century. didn't exist general concept to indicate risk, it was believed that good and bad luck were predetermined by fate and fortune.

IN Ancient Greece the mythologized worldview was based on the fact that the future is completely predetermined by the will and desire of the gods, i.e. absolutely independent of human behavior.

The emergence of world religions, and primarily Christianity, led to the fact that the future became ambiguous. There is an understanding that the possibility of a “different” future both in real life and after death depends on human behavior. Therefore, there was responsibility for the consequences of one’s actions.

In the Middle Ages, there was a realization that the future did not depend only on God. One of those who first raised this problem was the Italian monk, professor of mathematics, who lived in the 15th century, Luca Nacisli. During the Renaissance, serious study of problems related to risk began. Thanks to the development of gambling, and especially the game of dice, it became possible to predict the future. While researching gambling, the French mathematician, philosopher and inventor Blaise Pascal in 1654 turned to the mathematician P. Fermat for help. As a result of cooperation, the theory of probability was created. It became a huge ideological and practical leap, making it possible for the first time to make quantitative forecasts of the future. Since then, predictive tools like fortune-telling, sacrifice, and the delirium of the blessed began to become a thing of the past.

At the beginning of the 18th century. German mathematician G. Leibniz put forward the idea, and Swiss mathematician J. Bernoulli substantiated the law of large numbers and developed statistical procedures. Since 1725, when mortality tables were first used by the English government, this tool has quickly spread throughout the world.

In 1730, the French mathematician A. Moivre introduced the concept of the structure of a normal distribution and a measure of risk - the standard deviation. In 1738, D. Bernoulli defined expected utility, which is ultimately relied upon modern theory portfolio investments. Since 1763, thanks to Bayes' theorem (hypothesis theorem), the world has learned how the degree of awareness about the control object influences decision-making.

Thus, the discovery of new laws and the development of almost all modern risk management tools dates back to the 17th–18th centuries.

The new era has brought awareness of risk as a key factor human activity and one of the conditions for achieving success.

In the scientific literature you can find various definitions of this concept. As a rule, authors give them in relation to any specific activity. We will be primarily interested in the definitions given in the economic literature.

Peter Bernstein, in his work on the history of risk management, points out that the word "risk" comes from the Old Italian risicare, meaning “to dare,” and concludes that “in this sense, risk is a choice rather than a lot.”

In Webster's Dictionary ( Webster's Encyclopedic Unabridged Dictionary) "risk" is defined as "the likelihood of damage or loss", i.e. risk refers to the possibility of something happening unfavorable events. This traditional concept of risk can be demonstrated by a number of definitions of risk given by domestic and foreign authors (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1

Definitions of the concept of “risk” and their sources

If we compare the scope of definitions of risk concepts that were given above, it becomes obvious that they differ. There are many other definitions of risk within the traditional concept, but they are unlikely to change the overall picture.

An expanded interpretation of risk is identified with the concept of uncertainty, which means the impossibility of accurately predicting the optimal vector of development of a complex system and carries not only the likelihood of negative consequences, but also positive opportunities. The following definitions illustrate the expanded modern concept.

Risk is uncertainty financial results in the future.

Risk is the degree of uncertainty in obtaining future net income.

Risk is the probability of not receiving the planned level of income in conditions of uncertainty accompanying the activities of the enterprise.

Here one can clearly see the close relationship between risk, probability and uncertainty; Risk is based on the probabilistic nature of market activity and the uncertainty of the situation during its implementation. Therefore, in order to most accurately reveal the category of “risk”, it is necessary to define the concepts of “probability” and “uncertainty” that underlie risks.

• Cm.: Vishnyakov Ya. D., Radaev V. N. General theory of risks: textbook. allowance. 2nd ed., rev. M.: Academy, 2008. pp. 14–15.
• Bernstein P. Against the gods: taming risk: trans. from English M.: Olimp-Business, 2000. P. 26.
• Morgan J . R. RiskMetrics – Technical Document. URL: jpmorgan.com
• Cm.: Kasyanenko T. G. Conceptual foundations of business valuation: a reflection of the peculiarities of the development of professional valuation in Russia. St. Petersburg: Publishing house of St. Petersburg State University of Economics and Economics, 2006. pp. 229-230.

Risk- this is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production, economic or any other activity.

Unfavorable situation or unfortunate outcome this may include:

• lost profit;
• loss (loss of own funds);
• lack of result (neither profit nor loss);
• loss of income or profit;
• an event that may lead to losses or loss of income in the future.

Main risk characteristics

Economic nature. Risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic concepts associated with the implementation of the economic process of an enterprise. It manifests itself in the sphere economic activity enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of implementation.

Objectivity of manifestation. Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activities of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of his activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

Probability of occurrence. It manifests itself in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the process of financial economic activity enterprises. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, but the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

Uncertainty of consequences. The consequences of a financial and business transaction depend on the type of risk and can fluctuate within a fairly significant range. In other words, risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of additional income. This characteristic of risk means the indeterminacy (lack of a pattern in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.

Expected adverse consequences. Although the consequences of risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, risk in business practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

Level variability. The level of risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a certain area of ​​activity of an enterprise is not constant. It changes over time (depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent impact on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of invested financial assets, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors , which are in constant dynamics.

Subjectivity of assessment. Despite the fact that risk as an economic phenomenon is of an objective nature, its assessment indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of a given objective phenomenon) is determined different levels completeness and reliability information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

Risk classification

• Technogenic risks— these are risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution).
• Natural risks- these are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake).
• Mixed risks- these are risks that are events, but associated with human economic activity (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).

• Political risks— these are the risks of direct losses and losses or loss of profit due to unfavorable changes in the political situation in the state or actions of local authorities.
• Social risks are risks associated with social crises.
• Environmental risks- these are risks associated with the likelihood of civil liability for damage to the environment, as well as the life and health of third parties.
• Commercial risks are the risks of economic losses arising in any commercial, production and economic activities. Commercial risks include financial risks (associated with financial transactions) and production risks (associated with the production of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities).
• Occupational hazards are the risks associated with the implementation professional responsibilities(for example, risks associated with the professional activities of doctors, notaries, etc.).

• Forecasted risks- these are risks associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changes in the stages of financial market conditions, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of risks is relative character, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon in question from the risk category. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.
• Unpredictable risks are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.

According to this classification criterion, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

Types of risks by source:

• External (systematic or market) risk is a risk that does not depend on the activities of the enterprise. This risk arises when certain stages of the economic cycle change, financial market conditions change, and in a number of other cases that the enterprise cannot influence in its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, and tax risk.
• Internal (unsystematic or specific) risk is a risk that depends on the activities of a particular enterprise. It may be associated with unskilled financial management, inefficient structure of assets and capital, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) operations with a high rate of return, underestimation of business partners and other factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented by effective management risks.

• Acceptable risk- this is a risk for which losses do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the operation.
• Critical risk- this is a risk for which losses do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income from the transaction.
• Catastrophic risk- this is a risk for which losses are determined by partial or complete loss of equity capital (may be accompanied by loss of borrowed capital).

• Simple risk characterizes a type of risk that is not divided into its individual subtypes. For example, inflation risk.
• Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subtypes. For example, investment risk(risk investment project and the risk of a particular financial instrument).

• A risk that entails only economic losses has only negative consequences (loss of income or capital).
• Risk entailing lost profits characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, when credit rating the company cannot obtain the necessary loan).
• A risk that entails both economic losses and additional income (« speculative financial risk»), inherent, as a rule, in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

• Constant risk is typical for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.
• Temporary risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of enterprise insolvency.

• Insured risks- these are risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations.
• Uninsurable risks— these are risks for which there is no supply of appropriate insurance products on the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very flexible and is associated not only with the ability to predict them, but also with the effectiveness of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions given the current forms government regulation insurance activities.

• High risks are risks characterized by a high frequency of damage.
• Medium risks- these are risks characterized by an average frequency of damage.
• Small risks are risks characterized by a low probability of damage occurring.

Specialists in various industries constantly use in their communications not only the definition of “danger”, but also the term “risk”. What all views have in common is that risk involves uncertainty whether an undesirable event will occur and whether an adverse condition will occur. Note that, in accordance with modern views, risk is usually interpreted as a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards and the resulting social, economic, environmental and other types of damage and harm.

Risk should be understood as the expected frequency or probability of occurrence of hazards of a certain class, or the amount of possible damage (loss, harm) from an undesirable event, or some combination of these values.

The use of the concept of risk, thus, allows us to transfer danger into the category of measurable categories. Risk is, in fact, a measure of danger. The concept of “degree of risk” is often used, which is essentially no different from the concept of risk, but only emphasizes that we are talking about a measurable quantity. All of the above (or similar) interpretations of the term “risk” are currently used in hazard analysis and safety (risk) management of technological processes and production in general.

For the most part, mining technical factors are parameters of technological schemes for conducting work in quarries (scheme of face - excavator - dump truck - route - unloading point) and their values ​​​​according to various technological schemes are dynamic in nature. Obviously, the risk of failure to fulfill the shift plan by the excavator-vehicle complex will depend on the magnitude of the risk of reduced productivity for each model of equipment on a specific technological scheme, taking into account possible reduction performance due to poor technical condition equipment. This means that, knowing in advance the combination of equipment models in technological schemes (excavator-dump truck combination), it is possible to calculate the expected level of risk of failure to complete shift assignments for these equipment models, and therefore determine the possible productivity of the complex as a whole. To do this, it is necessary to know the maximum permissible level of risk, which can be determined based on the results of technical and economic calculations in the conditions of a particular enterprise, or, according to the recommendations of A.I. Arsentiev, accept based on the fear function, based on psychological aspects making a decision. Thus, having established an acceptable level of risk, it is possible to control the performance of the excavator-vehicle complex in the planning process and, upon receiving the calculated productivity corresponding to a risk level higher than the maximum permissible indicator, lower productivity values ​​​​corresponding to a lower level of risk are accepted for calculation.

Each undesirable event can occur in relation to a specific victim - an object of risk. The ratio of risk objects and undesirable events allows us to distinguish individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks. Each type is determined by characteristic sources and risk factors, the classification and characteristics of which are given in Table 4.1

Table 4.1 – Classification and characteristics of types of risk

From Table 4.1 it can be seen that the classification is divided into five risks. Each risk has its own objects. The object of individual risk is a person. The concept of individual risk refers to the probability of injury individual over a certain period of time as a result of exposure to the studied hazard factors during the reaction of an adverse random event, taking into account the likelihood of its presence in the affected area. Individual risk is also considered as a basic concept, firstly, due to the priority of human life as the highest value, and secondly, due to the fact that it is individual risk that can be assessed in large samples with a sufficient level of reliability, which makes it possible to determine other important risk categories in hazard analysis and establish acceptable and unacceptable levels of risk. The most common individual risk factors are vehicle accidents, collisions with people, poor air quality, viral infections, and domestic injuries.

The object of technical risk is technical systems and objects. This type of risk threatens equipment failures, reducing technical reliability electricity and heat supply and interruptions in the supply of energy to consumers. Technological processes at energy enterprises are highly complex, which requires highly qualified, and therefore very expensive, operational, repair and management personnel. Also, technical risk consists of the danger of technical disasters that cause significant damage to nature, people and production. Examples of the most common technical risk factors include the erroneous choice of directions for the development of equipment and technology based on safety criteria, poor-quality finishing of structures, the use of equipment for other purposes, untimely preventive inspections and repairs, and the lack of technical safety features in projects.

Before starting any production or other economic activity project, an environmental risk assessment is carried out. Environmental risks are assessed by conducting scientific research, which combines the study of facts and scientific predictions. The result is work that allows us to understand the subsequent degree of impact on a given area of ​​polluting factors or other agents harmful to nature that the incarnation will bring with it. of this project. Environmental risk is a serious scientific work, which is carried out exclusively by professional ecologists. An incorrect assessment of environmental risk can lead to irreversible consequences, both for a particular area and for the region as a whole. Sources and factors of environmental risk are the formation of artificial reservoirs, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, as well as pollution of reservoirs, atmospheric air with harmful substances, and soil with industrial waste.

Social risk is characterized by such factors as people settling in areas of possible flooding, increased seismicity in the region, volcanic eruptions, and man-made pollution of the environment. There are two groups social risk factors: foreseeable (the actions of which can be expected, assessed, they have been sufficiently studied by science, and can be managed) and unforeseen (which are not possible to identify at the a priori stage of risk analysis, some may arise for the first time; this group of risks is the most difficult to manage).

The object of economic risk is represented by material resources. In international trade, there is a threat of losses for any company that incurs expenses in one currency and receives income in another. Any changes in exchange rates may lead to a deterioration or improvement in the financial and market position of the company. Economic risks also arise if the company plans to enter into individual contracts or conduct operations in the future. Economic risks are long-term and potentially the most dangerous manifestations of risks.

Individual risk due to the likelihood of potential dangers occurring when dangerous situations arise. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:

Where is individual risk; (t)− number of victims per unit of time t from

a certain risk factor ; − number of people exposed to the corresponding risk factor per unit of time t;

Environmental risk expresses the likelihood of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment or a natural disaster. Undesirable environmental risk events can manifest themselves both directly in intervention zones and beyond:

,

Where - environmental risk; - number of man-made environmental disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t; - the number of potential sources of environmental destruction in the territory under consideration;

Social risk characterizes the scale and severity of the negative consequences of emergency situations, as well as various types of phenomena and transformations that reduce the quality of life of people. Essentially, it is a risk to a group or community of people. It can be assessed, for example, by the dynamics of mortality calculated per 1000 people:

Where is the economic risk, % ; - harm to society from the type of activity in question; - benefit;

Technical risk – a comprehensive indicator of the reliability of technosphere elements. It expresses the probability of an accident or catastrophe during the operation of machines, mechanisms, implementation of technological processes, construction and operation of buildings and structures:

,

Where is technical risk; - number of accidents per unit of time t on identical technical systems and facilities; - the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common risk factor;

Sources and factors of technical risk: erroneous choice of directions for the development of equipment and technology based on safety criteria, use of equipment for other purposes, violation of transportation and storage requirements, untimely preventive inspections and repairs of technical systems, violation of regulations for the assembly and installation of structures and machines.

Risk is an integral factor that cannot be avoided. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate acceptable risk.

Acceptable risk combines technical, environmental, social aspects and represents some compromise between an acceptable level of safety and the economic possibilities of achieving it, i.e. We can talk about reducing individual, technical or environmental risk, but we must not forget how much we will have to pay for this and what the social risk will be as a result.

Any decision made for a quarry contains an element of uncertainty and is therefore associated with risk. It is believed that risk is the danger of non-fulfillment decisions made in conditions of uncertainty of initial data or (in another version) acting at random in the hope of happy outcome. Level (measure) of risk:

,

Where is the probability of fulfilling a decision on a factor A.

where and – the risk of not confirming geological and technical and economic data, respectively.

Let's assume that the indicator A, on which a decision needs to be made, due to uncertainty varies from A 0 to A 5 at mathematical expectation A m and has a normal distribution (Figure 4.1). If a decision is made A i(dot F), then the risk level:

,

Where S i– area under the distribution curve to the left of the accepted point; S o– total area under the distribution curve ( S o =1)

There are two types of risk. There is a risk associated with boundary damage. For example, the side of a quarry may stand or collapse, a missile may or may not hit the target, etc. The second type of risk is associated with a monotonic change in the expected result, for example, the productivity of a quarry or ore reserves. If the risk level is too high, then the quarry will not stop working, but will not reach the specified productivity. If the level of risk is too high when estimating ore reserves, its extraction will not stop, but at a given horizon it may not be in the expected volume.